How accurate is the estimate?

Every number below is measured on listings the model did not train on. We publish this so the figure in the panel has a receipt.

9.5%Median error versus asking rent, 5-fold cross-validation, 5,317 listings

52%Estimates within 10% of asking

79%Within 20%

80%Share of listings whose asking rent falls inside the panel's 80% band, after calibration

What this means

Asking rent is the only ground truth available at scale, so both numbers are measured against it. A listing priced far above the market counts as error for the estimate, which is the point: the panel is supposed to disagree with those.
Outside San Diego County the estimate comes from a public ZIP rent index with a size and property-type correction. On a held-out set of 201 Dana Point listings the median error was 15% with local data in the model and 23% from the index alone, versus about 9% inside San Diego. The panel labels those estimates as lower confidence.
The offer and the "likely to settle" number are rules on top of the estimate: expected price cuts by time listed, vacancy, and comparable units. They will be measured against reported outcomes once enough renters report what landlords accepted.

Updated 2026-09-09. Method: gradient-boosted model on beds, baths, size, year, location, type, and ZIP; grouped 5-fold cross-validation by address; median absolute percentage error. Zillow's Rent Zestimate is never an input to our estimate.